South Italy, unemployment still above 2008 levels

The latest update of our service Scenari per le economie locali shows that in 2018 the unemployment rate, although decreasing in all areas, is still far above the levels of 2008, before the beginning of the economic crisis. While in whole Italy unemployment is still over 4 percentage points higher than the levels of 10 years ago, in Southern regions the gap exceeds 7 percentage points, which in terms of employment means a cutback of more than 400 thousand full time equivalent units. What about the other Italian areas? In North-Western Italy the unemployment rate is expected in the current year at 7,1%, about 3 p.p. above that of 2008. The North- Eastern regions are recording the lowest unemployment rate, as in 2008, but still 2,4 pp higher than 10 years ago; in Central Italy the gap from 2008 remains at 3,4 p.p.

This means that, according to the latest Prometeia’s territorial scenario, in Northern Italy unemployment is set to come back to its pre-crisis levels only in 2024, while in Central regions the gap will be closed not before 2028; for South Italy even longer times are expected.

About GDP levels, the North-Western Italy is projected to report the highest value of GDP per capita in 2018, while only South Italy will remain below the national average. This did not prevent Southern Italy from recovering faster than the Central regions and also the North-Western ones but, notwithstanding its highest pace of growth, the gap from the pre-crisis levels remains high.